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In today's rapidly evolving and interconnected global environment, companies must vigilantly monitor global trends to comprehend and adapt to their shifting risk profiles. Monitoring global trends such as economic, political, social and technological trends can help companies anticipate and adapting to emerging risks and overall changes in their risk profile. Failing to monitor these trends leaves businesses vulnerable to unexpected issues and events. For example, the growing adoption of artificial intelligence and automation presents both risks, such as cybersecurity threats, and opportunities, like improved operational efficiency. Similarly, demographic shifts, such as aging populations in developed markets or expanding middle classes in emerging economies, can reshape demand for products and services. By analyzing these trends, companies can better allocate resources, refine their risk assessment frameworks, and develop contingency plans. Ultimately, monitoring global trends empowers businesses to navigate uncertainty, remain competitive, and build resilience in an ever-changing risk landscape. The following are some of the key trends that DelCreo is monitoring in 2025: Geopolitics, Supply Chain, Tax Policy, Talent Dynamics, Enshittification, Electrification, EV/ EIV/ Autonomous Vehicle, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Content, Computing Resources, Cybersecurity, and Connectivity. With these risk factors in mind, and to be examined in greater detail throughout the year, today we will be focusing on the rapidly developing geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical Risk & The Second Cold War: A 2025 Enterprise Risk Perspective

In 2025, geopolitical risks continue to be among the most pressing challenges for enterprises worldwide. Businesses are facing increased uncertainty due to shifting international alliances, trade restrictions, and heightened global conflicts. The re-election of Donald Trump has set off significant shifts in international relations, trade, security, and regulatory environments. These developments are further complicating the ability of businesses to operate seamlessly across borders. As global tensions rise, companies must take a proactive approach to understanding and managing risks associated with supply chain disruptions, market volatility, and economic realignments, failure to do so could result in the inability to navigate unforeseen operational roadblocks, increased regulatory scrutiny, and a corresponding negative impact on profitability.

Hot Wars & Global Conflict Escalation

The geopolitical landscape remains highly unstable, with armed conflicts reaching their highest levels since the Cold War. Active conflicts continue to reshape the risk environment, affecting global commerce, trade routes, and financial markets. Organizations must be prepared for disruptions arising from continued hostilities in critical regions. The most pressing conflict areas include:

  • Russo-Ukrainian war, which continues to strain European energy markets, global commodities, and manufacturing supply chains.

  • Middle East tensions, involving Israel, Iran, Hamas, Syria, and Yemen, which pose risks to global energy stability and trade security.

  • Conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Sahel Region, which are exacerbating raw material shortages, especially for key industries such as technology and energy.

These conflicts continue to drive supply chain vulnerabilities, fluctuating energy prices, and greater compliance and regulatory risks. Organizations with exposure to these regions must continually reassess their risk management strategies, ensuring the development of comprehensive contingency plans and risk mitigation frameworks.

The New Cold War: Business Implications

The ongoing geopolitical rivalry between the United States, China, and Russia has intensified, leading to new economic and technological challenges for global enterprises. This so-called Second Cold War is being fought through trade restrictions, competitive military posturing, and strategic alliances that impact global markets. Key developments include:

  • Tightened U.S. technology export restrictions, limiting access to AI accelerators, semiconductors, and cybersecurity tools, disrupting technology supply chains and increasing production costs.

  • China’s continued military presence near Taiwan, recent live fire drills near Australia and other military actions elevate concerns for businesses with investments in the region and raising the potential for military confrontation that could disrupt trade flows in the Indo-Pacific.

  • Strengthened Russia-China economic and military cooperation, creating an emerging trade bloc that competes against Western economies and shifts supply chain dependencies.

  • U.S. countermeasures against China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in Latin America and the Arctic, impacting long-term infrastructure investments and foreign trade policies. The recent BlackRock deal to purchase two main Panama Canal ports from a Hong Kong based company may ease some tension, how China remains active in the region.

Businesses should monitor geopolitical developments closely, diversify  supply chains, establish alternate trade partnerships, and adopt risk-based compliance strategies to navigate this evolving global landscape.

Technological Decoupling & Compliance Risks

  • The U.S. has significantly tightened controls on exporting critical technologies to China and Russia, affecting multinational corporations in sectors such as AI, semiconductors, telecommunications, and cybersecurity. Companies must assess the impact of these restrictions on their supply chains and partnerships.

  • Concerns over Chinese-controlled digital platforms, such as TikTok and other tech firms, continue to grow. This raises compliance risks for businesses operating across global digital ecosystems, requiring greater vigilance in data governance, cybersecurity, privacy regulations, and likely the costs associated with maintaining compliance and cybersecurity measures.

  • Restrictions on embedded software in connected vehicles have created new compliance hurdles for the automotive and technology industries, requiring businesses to restructure software supply chains and implement rigorous vetting procedures.

Given these shifts, businesses must adopt dynamic compliance frameworks, invest in regulatory intelligence, and explore alternative global partnerships to reduce their exposure to economic and technological risks.

The Trump Effect on Business & Risk Management

The Trump administration’s renewed focus on trade restrictions, protectionism, and national security policies is reshaping the business environment in ways that require careful strategic planning. Many industries will experience disruptions as new regulations, tariffs, and economic policies are introduced. Businesses must prepare for uncertainty in global trade relations and regulatory changes that could impact operations across multiple sectors.

Strategic Risk Management in an Unstable World

In today’s evolving risk landscape, enterprises must develop resilient risk management frameworks to withstand global instability. Failing to do so could result in reputational damage, financial losses, and weakened operational capabilities. To navigate the uncertainty of 2025, organizations should consider prioritizing the following areas:

  • Enhanced geopolitical risk monitoring, leveraging advanced data analytics and intelligence platforms to identify emerging threats before they escalate.

  • Diversified supply chains, reducing dependency on single-source suppliers and building redundancy to mitigate potential trade disruptions.

  • Robust compliance and regulatory strategies, ensuring adherence to rapidly evolving trade policies and government-imposed restrictions.

  • Increased investment in cybersecurity and technology governance, protecting businesses against cyber threats, economic espionage, and risks arising from the technological decoupling between global superpowers.

By taking a strategic, forward-thinking approach, organizations can fortify their risk preparedness, maintain competitive advantage, and ensure business continuity in an increasingly volatile global market.

Stay Ahead of Risk with DelCreo

At DelCreo, we provide strategic enterprise risk management solutions to help businesses navigate an unpredictable geopolitical landscape. Contact our experts to fortify your risk strategies and ensure long-term resilience.

Request more information on emerging risks, DelCreo’s Risk Universe and enterprise risk services.

As a reminder, here are our Risk Universe categories that we leverage to tackle and understand risk which include:

  • External Risk

  • Governance Risk

  • Strategic Risk

  • Product Risk

  • Business Operations Risk

  • Legal & Compliance Risk

  • Financial Risk

  • Technology Risk

We leverage our understanding of risk maps and risk universes to better advise our clients in strategic business decisions and to optimize the management of risk throughout the enterprise.

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