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In the rapidly evolving risk landscape of today’s fast-moving business environment, forecasting and managing risks is more important than ever. As examining risk requires a thorough framework, at DelCreo we strive to help our clients manage enterprise-level risk through an exacting risk assessment and categorization process. To do this we navigate risk through our Risk Universe framework which breaks down risks relevant to organizations through External, Governance, Strategic, Product, Business Operations, Legal & Compliance, Financial, and Technology risk. Furthermore, there are progressively more specific risk categories until we reach specific risks. By appropriately classifying risks we can isolate the root causes of risks as well as project how linked risks may be affected.
In todays rapidly evolving and interconnected global environment, companies must vigilantly monitor global trends to comprehend and adapt to their shifting risk profiles. Monitoring global trends such as economic, political, social and technological trends can help companies anticipate and adapting to emerging risks and overall changes in their risk profile. Failing to monitor these trends leaves businesses vulnerable to unexpected issues and events. For example, the growing adoption of artificial intelligence and automation presents both risks, such as cybersecurity threats, and opportunities, like improved operational efficiency. Similarly, demographic shifts, such as aging populations in developed markets or expanding middle classes in emerging economies, can reshape demand for products and services. By analyzing these trends, companies can better allocate resources, refine their risk assessment frameworks, and develop contingency plans. Ultimately, monitoring global trends empowers businesses to navigate uncertainty, remain competitive, and build resilience in an ever-changing risk landscape. The following are some of the key trends that DelCreo is monitoring in 2025:
Geopolitics
Supply Chain
Tax Policy
Talent Dynamics
Enshittification
Electrification
EV/ EIV/ Autonomous Vehicle
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
Quantum Computing
Synthetic Content
Computing Resources
Cybersecurity
Connectivity
GEOPOLITICS and COLD WAR 2
The Trump Effect on geopolitics, particularly following his re-election in 2025, encompasses a broad spectrum of changes and reactions in international relations, trade, security, and diplomatic norms. Armed conflicts are one of the most pressing risks in 2025 and are near their highest levels levels since the ending of the last cold war. Hot wars and tensions continue in Russo –Ukrainian war, the middle east with Israel, Iran, Hamas, Syria, Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sahel Region conflicts. In recent years, geopolitical tensions have intensified, leading to what some analysts term a Second Cold War”, characterized by heightened rivalry between the United States on one side and a strengthening alliance between China and Russia on the other. The deepening partnership between China and Russia has been evident in various domains, including, economic agreements, energy, supply chains, military collaboration and shared strategic interests. U.S.-China tensions may continue to escalate in 2025, as the Trump administration appears ready to further decouple business and technology paths. In addition, further tensions may rise as the US seeks to counter the belt and road initiative primarily in the Americas, including Panama Canal and countering China and Russia in the Arctic and Greenland and China continues to conduct military drills near Taiwan, raising tensions with Taiwan and its allies.
SUPPLY CHAIN
The intensifying rivalry between the US and China has led to Technological Decoupling and Export Restrictions on critical technologies. The U.S. has imposed limitations on exporting advanced technologies like AI and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China and Russia as well as restrictions to reduce reliance on China in targeted industries, such as AI, software, semiconductors, etc. This decoupling pressures U.S. companies to seek alternative markets and suppliers, potentially increasing costs and complicating supply chain logistics, with countries increasingly aligning their trade and investment practices along geopolitical lines. The U.S. continues to be vulnerable to China regarding rare earth minerals including antimony, gallium and germanium. In response to these challenges, U.S. companies are bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. and investing in supply chain and sourcing from allied countries, i.e. “friend-shoring”, however re-aligning supply chains takes time as new facilities, equipment and supplier networks need to be built.
TAX POLICY
As we progress through 2025 and into 2026, several significant US and global tax policy changes are anticipated, each carrying implications for U.S. businesses. The Trump administration has proposed significant tariff increases, including 10%–20% across-the-board tariffs on all U.S. imports as a means to reduce income tax and overall Federal spending deficits, retaliatory tariffs ranging from 25-200% on products from countries with discriminatory tariffs on U.S. businesses and tariffs used as a geopolitical negotiating tool. Trade policy and tariffs bring uncertainty, potentially affecting Fed policy, inflation, etc. Expiration of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions in the U.S. including individual tax rates and deductions and changes to the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) and Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII) regimes are anticipated, potentially increasing the effective U.S. tax rate on foreign corporate income from 13.1% to 16.4% starting in 2026. 136 countries agreed in 2021 to implement a 15% global minimum corporate tax rate, aiming for enforcement by 2023. However, the U.S. has expressed reservations about this agreement and the current administration has signaled a lack of support for the U.S.s continued involvement. Multinational corporations may encounter increased tax obligations in countries that implement the global minimum tax, potentially reducing the advantages of operating in low-tax jurisdictions.
TALENT DYNAMICS
2025 will continue to challenge organization’s ability to find, develop and retain top talent resources. Workforce planning is still largely headcount-based, limiting organizations ability to anticipate future talent needs. The loss of expertise due to retirements and technological disruption as well as immigration-related challenges remains a top issue. AI has replaced many traditional learning opportunities for junior employees, leaving organizations with a growing skills gap. AI and technological innovations are also driving organizational restructuring, with leaders pushing for flatter structures and streamlined processes. Organizations will continue to struggle to retain top performers. Many managers are overwhelmed and unprepared for future challenges, with leadership programs failing to equip them adequately. Organizational culture remains a priority, but misalignment between vision and reality persists, with many leaders failing to enforce company values. The role of managers is also evolving as AI tools gain influence in decision-making. Employees increasingly trust AI for fairer feedback and compensation decisions, shifting workplace dynamics. Additionally, AI can mask performance disparities, complicating talent management and employee retention. Hybrid work remains a key challenge, as companies continue to struggle to find the right balance between in-office and work from home policies, productivity, and work-life balance.
ENSHITTIFICATION
Enshittification is a term coined by Cory Doctorow to describe a phenomenon where online platforms become less useful, less enjoyable, or less user-friendly over time. While its not a formally defined term with clear criteria, its often used to describe situations where platforms prioritize monetization, advertising, or other business interests over user experience. Typical enshittification phases include:
Phase 1: Good to Users - focus is on building a good user experience, often funded by venture capital.
Phase 2: Good to Business Customers - business customer experience and value becomes the focus, at the expense of user experience.
Phase 3: Extraction of Value for Shareholders - at the expense of user and business customer experience and further divergence from initial positive user experience.
“This is enshittification: Surpluses are first directed to users; then, once they’re locked in, surpluses go to suppliers; then once they’re locked in, the surplus is handed to shareholders and the platform becomes a useless pile of shit.” This cycle traps users because switching to alternatives can be difficult. As the investments in AI continue to surge, look for AI related services to refocus from user and business experience to shareholder value extraction.
ELECTRIFICATION
The digital age of AI and cloud computing and its rapidly growing demand for data centers and computing power is intersecting with industrial and consumer electrification trends including electric vehicles. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warns that this surge in consumption, coupled with the retirement of aging power plants, could result in power supply shortfalls across half of the United States within the next decade. “Goldman Sachs Research estimates that data center power demand will grow 160% by 2030. Data centers will use between 8% - 12% of US power by 2030, compared with 3% in 2022. That kind of spike in power demand hasn’t been seen in the United States since the early years of this century and represents a seismic shift in composition of energy utilization in the United States. In Europe, power demand could grow up to 50% by 2033 and Europe may need to invest as much as $1 trillion-plus to prepare its power grid for AI driven consumption. As a result, the power grid might become more fragile, data center and cloud computing costs and nuclear power is poised for a resurgence.
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Electric Vehicles are expected to continue gaining market share, with projections indicating they will account for 23.5% of global light-vehicle sales by 2025, rising to 45.3% by 2030. This growth is fueled by declining costs, expanding model ranges, and supportive government policies. However, current demand trends have led traditional and EV automakers to delay or scale back their electric vehicle (EV) strategies for several reasons, reflecting a combination of an ongoing EV price war, reduction in government tax incentives and funding, market conditions, production challenges, and strategic missteps. Significant progress in battery technology is anticipated, with developments in solid-state batteries that promise higher energy density, faster charging times, and improved safety. These advancements are expected to increase vehicle range and reduce charging times, making EVs more appealing to consumers. The trend towards lower electric car prices continues, driven by reduced battery costs and economies of scale in production. By 2025, many EV models are expected to reach price parity with or even undercut internal combustion engine vehicles in terms of total cost of ownership. Theres a strong push for the expansion of charging networks, with a focus on both public and private charging solutions. The demand for fast chargers is projected to increase significantly, aiming to meet the needs of a growing EV fleet. Temporary delays may occur in the U.S. as the Trump administration looks to cancel federal government subsidies. Electric Intelligent Vehicles (EIVs) represent a significant advancement in automotive technology, combining electric propulsion with intelligent systems to enhance efficiency, safety, and user experience. The intelligence of these vehicles extends beyond mere automation; it encompasses machine learning algorithms that adapt to the drivers habits, preferences, and even predict maintenance needs before they become issues. Moreover, with the advent of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) communication, these cars can interact with other vehicles, traffic infrastructure, and even smart city systems to optimize travel, reduce congestion, and enhance safety.
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